SPC Risk:MODERATE - VERIFICATION Chasers: (Car 1: Dean S, Stuart C, Stardust W, Huy N) (Car 2: Reed T, Joel T, Ken C, Dave H) Target: Malvern, AR Miles Logged: 1122.1 Largest Hail: N/A Tornadoes: N/A
Synopsis/Chase (courtesy of Stuart Coombs):
Thursday morning excitement grew as we awaited the publishing of the new day 2 forecast from SPC and
sure enough the previous day's slight had been upgraded to a moderate in the target area near Memphis
Tennessee. The description talked about significant long track tornadoes and a significant severe weather
event being likely. Preparations were completed for the trip across - the plan being to arrive in Memphis
Thursday evening and investigate the local nightlife - before going chasing the next day as promised high
CAPE conditions and intense shears (low level and deep layer) made for perfect tornado weather.
We got underway around 4pm and after some shuffling between two cars the eight person chase team were underway
heading for Memphis. In my car were the infamous Reed "Mr Tornado" Timmer, Joel and Dave H. Reed decided it would
be a good idea to have some sing alongs - and for the purpose chose a combination of the soundtrack to Team America....
that's right "America.... f*#k yeah!!!" and the best hits of Tom Petty. The drive (apart from the singing and several
tales, the details of which I won't reveal here) was quite without incident although in the later stages some high
based thunderstorm activity was observed off to the north and northeast.
We reached Memphis around 1am and decided to hit Beale Street after dropping our stuff off at the motel.
Wiser members of the group - Dean, Star, Joel and Huy decided to turn in early - however the remainder
headed for the clubs. We spent most of the time in club 231 and Reed after suitable lubrication got
onto the dance floor with Ken and showed the local ladies some of this moves.... He subsequently
discovered that the old Tornado Chaser pickup line doesn't always work. Eventually Dave and myself
coaxed Reed and Ken back to the motel and we turned in before sunrise - although not by much!
The next day the models were much more pessimistic about prospects and showed the synoptic passern evolving
much further south and with a much weaker low and low level winds - thus reducing shear and potential for
storm organisation. It was noted that there was still potential for some intense activity - and SPC was
still going with its moderate risk. The other aspect of the change of heart from the models was to place
the target area further to the west and south of that previous - ie. southern and western Arkansas.
We headed west along I40 under a thick coverage of stratus and stratocumulus as moist Gulf air was drawn
northward above the surface of a shallow warm front. Occasional light drizzle fell adding to the sombre
lighting thankfully for some members of the team! We eventually turned south and reached the town of
Stuttgart where we invaded the local library and found out that the latest model runs had gotten
even worse - now NO surface low was expected - just an open wave in the frontal zone and winds aloft had
correspondingly eased still further. One ray of hope was that a clearance in the cloud was showing over
extreme southwest and western Arkansas just ahead of the cold front - allowing for heating and initiation
of surface based thunderstorms.
We targeted the town of Malvern in west central Arkansas - thinking to place ourselves just east of initiation
and thus able to target storms as they moved towards us and intensified. Unfortunately Malvern is in the foothills
of the Ozarks which are densely forested - and after a lengthy trip through biyou riddled and rice paddied south
central Arkansas - it became evident that finding a clear vantage point to spot tornadoes was going to be very
difficult in the terrain. Furthermore the stratus had persisted with the attendant drizzle all the way to Malvern.
Upon arriving in Malvern we attempted to get internet access at the local Library - only to find it shut at 5pm -
1 minute after we got there! Eventually we found our way to the local technical college where our worst fears were
confirmed - storms had fired to our south-EAST. These storms weren't even surface based - being above the stratocumulus
deck and looked a ragged mess. Another ragged line of poorly formed storms was developing away to the southwest near
the cold front which was not worth chasing. So much for the most promising buildup of the season so far! To add
insult to injury (or possibly hangover) the only well formed storm anywhere was an elevated supercell at that
time crossing Memphis metropolitan area - it went on to produce 1 3/4 inch hail! We called it a day and headed
to Hot Springs in mountainous western Arkansas and had a beautiful meal of Mexican before winding our way northwest
through Blair Witch like forests to the interstate and then on home to Norman.
