DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2003 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW LFK 25 NE CLL 25 ESE ACT 30 SSW DAL 20 NE DUA 20 NW FYV 35 ENE SGF 20 SE VIH 45 SSW BLV 20 ENE CGI 35 SSW PAH 20 S DYR 25 SSW GLH 40 WNW ESF 40 SSE LFK 55 SSW LFK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE CRP 20 NE COT 45 W HDO 30 NW JCT 35 W END 30 N MHK 35 W DSM 45 ENE ALO 20 E JVL 35 SSW SBN 20 ESE IND 25 WSW SDF 10 NE BNA 35 SW LUL 40 WSW HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW FCL CAG 20 SSW RKS 20 N BPI 25 WNW COD 40 E BIL 35 NNE 4BQ 45 ESE REJ 30 SSE PHP 40 WSW MHN 25 S SNY 15 WSW FCL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW P07 45 NNW BGS 35 E HLC 30 WNW OTG 15 W INL ...CONT... 100 ENE APN 15 E FNT FDY 45 W UNI 20 E HTS 25 NW LYH 20 NE ORF ...CONT... 15 SSW CRE 45 SSE AHN 15 NNW CSG 20 WSW TOI 25 WSW PNS. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MO...AR...SERN OK...ERN TX...NRN LA...FAR NW MS AND FAR WRN TN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND SERN TX...CNTRL OK...ERN KS...NRN MO...SERN IA...IL...WRN IND...WRN KY...WRN TN...MS AND LA... ...SYNOPSIS... THE LARGE UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE WRN US WILL ORGANIZE AND MOVE EWD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TX AND OK INTO THE OZARKS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS AREAS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS MTNS. ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY... SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL ORGANIZE AND MOVE SWIFTLY EWD ACROSS W TX BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD FOCUS ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL TX EXTENDING NWD INTO CNTRL OK DURING THE DAY. AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES EWD...IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING SFC MOISTURE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F ACROSS NE TX AND SERN OK. ALTHOUGH SFC HEATING WILL BE LIMITED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD REACH 500 TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION. THE LINE SHOULD ORGANIZE AS IT MOVES EWD INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT MATERIALIZES WILL DETERMINE THE AMOUNT OF SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 50 KT WILL ENHANCE A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE LINE. IN ADDITION...STRONG 0-1 KM SHEAR AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL FAVOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH SHALLOW SUPERCELLS WITHIN BREAKS IN THE LINE THAT FORM IN LOCALLY HIGHER AREAS OF INSTABILITY. A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR IN THE AREA INCLUDING SRN MO...AR...NRN LA...SERN OK AND ERN TX CONSIDERING THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND UPPER-TROUGH. ...UPPER MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY... MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS THE UPPER-TROUGH SHIFTS EWD INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 50S F ACROSS ERN NEB...IA AND IL BY AFTERNOON. STRONG CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SHOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NERN KS AND ERN NEB IN THE AFTERNOON. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL EXPAND AND MOVE EWD ACROSS IA AND INTO WI AND IL DURING THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 50 KT. THIS SUGGESTS ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVECTIVE LINE DURING THE EVENING WITH A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL EXIST WITH BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE LINE ACROSS SERN IA...NRN MO AND IL. ..BROYLES.. 11/16/2003