STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS. VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NERN TX / THE ERN HALF OF OK AND SWRN KS. THE MDT RISK AREA IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE JLN 10 W FSM 45 SE DAL 30 ENE SEP 15 WNW ADM 25 NE OKC 15 WNW END 25 ESE P28 35 ENE ICT 40 NNE CNU 20 NE JLN. SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LIT 25 N CLL 30 NW SAT 15 ESE JCT 25 SSE ABI 45 SW GAG 25 S DDC 10 E RSL 40 NNW FNB 20 W MCW 20 NNE MSP 35 SSE IWD 40 S ESC 20 NE MKE 30 ENE MLI LIT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW DRT 25 S SJT 35 W ABI 65 SSW CDS 45 N HOB 15 SE TCS 60 SW SOW 45 NE IGM 20 NW BCE 15 SSW SLC 15 S PIH MQM 45 NE HVR ...CONT... 55 NNE OLF 60 NNW MLS 30 NNW SHR 40 E RWL FCL 20 SW AKO 20 SSW IML 35 N EAR 10 ENE YKN 10 NNE AXN 20 NE ELO ...CONT... CLE 30 SSW UNI 40 SSW LOZ 10 SW CHA 25 W LGC 35 SSW TOI 40 N MOB 30 ENE JAN 30 S GLH 20 WSW MLU 30 NW HOU 50 NW LRD. ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE FEATURE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE SRN PLAINS REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IS INITIALLY FORECAST ACROSS SRN MN -- ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER FEATURE NOW MOVING ACROSS NEB -- WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS IA INTO KS. A SECOND LOW IS FORECAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES...WHILE DRY LINE MIXES EWD INTO CENTRAL OK / CENTRAL TX. ...SRN PLAINS... THUNDERSTORMS -- AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL -- ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS WRN N TX / OK AND INTO ERN KS / WRN MO IN REGION OF WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW- LEVEL JET / BENEATH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH COUPLED UPPER JETS. AS THIS AREA OF CONVECTION SHIFTS NEWD DURING THE DAY...DRY LINE IS FORECAST TO MIX EWD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS OK INVOF DRYLINE / SURFACE LOW AS WELL AS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTION. DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS / SUPERCELLS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 70 TO 80 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD / ONGOING STORMS MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR HEATING / DESTABILIZATION -- AND THUS OVERALL SEVERE THREAT -- ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...IT APPEARS THAT AIRMASS MAY REMAIN FAIRLY UNDISTURBED BY PRIOR CONVECTION FROM NERN TX INTO SERN OK. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE INVOF DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION...AND RAPIDLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR GIVEN FAVORABLY STRONG / VEERING WIND FIELD. ALTHOUGH GREATEST THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT / DEVELOP NEWD INTO MO / AR LATER IN THE PERIOD...WHILE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAKER INSTABILITY. ...LOWER MO / UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD -- EXPECIALLY ACROSS MN / WI / ERN IA / NRN IL SWWD INTO MO. AS THIS AREA OF STORMS CONTINUES NEWD...THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG COLD FRONT FROM ERN KS / WRN MO INTO IA / SRN MN / WI. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUPPORTS A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY ONGOING CONVECTION / MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ..GOSS.. 04/18/03