STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS. VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN OK...SERN KS...SWRN MO...AND NWRN AR...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW UNO 45 SE FYV 15 SW PGO 15 ESE DUA 15 S ADM 35 NNW ADM 40 ENE CSM 20 N CSM 30 SSW GAG 25 NW GAG 30 SW P28 40 SSW ICT 35 S EMP 40 SW OJC 25 ESE OJC 10 ESE SZL 35 NW TBN 10 WSW TBN 25 WNW UNO. SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA....THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW POF 30 SW HOT 30 SSE TYR 30 NNE CLL 30 SSE AUS 10 WNW SAT 45 SE JCT 20 S BWD 35 N BWD 50 WNW MWL 30 ESE CDS 20 WNW PVW 50 WSW AMA 10 SE DHT 25 W LBL 20 SW DDC 20 E RSL 35 NNW MHK 30 NNW FNB 20 WSW FOD 25 S MKT 10 WNW MSP 65 S DLH 25 N RHI 20 ESE IMT 30 S ESC 10 W MBL 20 W MKG 10 W BEH 45 NNE LAF 15 ENE HUF 35 NNE EVV 10 SSW EVV 35 W MDH 30 NW POF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 50 SW JCT 20 W JCT 45 N JCT 25 NNW ABI 75 ESE LBB 50 WSW LBB 60 ENE 4CR 40 SE ABQ 55 NW SVC 40 NE PHX 30 ESE MLF 10 ENE U24 25 E OGD 20 ESE JAC 10 SSW COD 30 ESE SHR 35 NE DGW 20 E BFF IML 25 ESE GRI 40 ESE SUX 45 SW STC 15 N BRD 25 ENE ELO ...CONT... 30 NNW APN 25 NE FWA 45 NNE SDF 30 SW BNA 30 SE GWO 30 SE BPT. ...AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS TODAY AND TONIGHT... ...OK/SERN KS/SWRN MO/NWRN AR... NUMEROUS ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ALONG EXTENSIVE DRY LINE FROM NRN MO SWWD TO WRN TX WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD GENERALLY ENEWD THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE MOST WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENEWD FROM WRN TX INTO WRN OK/SRN KS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG MIDLEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY EMERGING FROM THE BASE OF WRN U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH. AS THIS INITIAL MCS CLEARS CNTRL OK LATER THIS MORNING...STRONG INSTABILITY IS FCST TO DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN AND CNTRL OK AHEAD OF A SHARPENING DRY LINE...AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM KS. CONSIDERABLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY...AND ASSOCIATED 90KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK...WILL HANG BACK ACROSS NM/WEST TX THROUGH ABOUT 21 UTC WHEN LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP EWD ATOP DESTABILIZING AIRMASS. AS THE STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT COMBINES WITH MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT EXPECT RAPID AND INTENSE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THESE FEATURES GIVEN PRESENCE OF MLCAPE VALUES IN OF 1500-2500 J/KG. INTENSE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 75KT IN SOME AREAS WILL BE ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY BECOME MORE LINEAR IN NATURE GIVEN ITS ORIENTATION...AND STRONG CONVERGENCE EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. NONETHELESS...STRENGTH OF FORCING...INSTABILITY...AND SHEAR ALL SUGGEST THAT LONG LIVED AND VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WILL BE LIKELY. MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS AND POSSIBLE FORMATION OF ONE OR MORE SUBSYNOPTIC LOWS INVOF DRY LINE/COLD FRONT TRIPLE POINT WOULD ENHANCE TORNADIC POTENTIAL WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES FROM CNTRL OK TO NERN OK/SERN KS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO MESOSCALE FEATURES YET TO FORM...AND OVERALL AREAL EXTENT OF HIGHER TORNADO PROBABILITIES...WILL DEFER POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK UNTIL LATER OUTLOOKS. IN ADDITION...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DRY INTRUSION AT MIDLEVELS...AND ALMOST 100KT OF WSWLY FLOW AT 500MB...WOULD SUGGEST THAT SOME ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO EVOLVE INTO A RAPIDLY FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS AS STORMS BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT. THIS COMPLEX...IF IT DEVELOPS...COULD CAUSE A SWATH OF WIND DAMAGE FROM NERN OK/SERN KS...EWD ACROSS THE OZARKS DURING THE LATE EVENING. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... STRONG ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION ON THE NOSE OF 50-60KT 850 MB JET IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED POCKETS OF SEVERE STORMS WITHIN LARGER SCALE MCS AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM KS/MO AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AS SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE STORMS OVER IA/IL/SRN WI AREA...STORMS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL. A SMALL CORRIDOR OF HIGHER TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE FROM S-CNTRL INTO NERN IA THROUGH 00 UTC AS LOW PRESSURE WAVE COINCIDENT WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER FCST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS NNEWD ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ..CARBIN/TAYLOR.. 04/19/03