STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS. VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN TX ACROSS MUCH OF AR/LA INTO WRN TN/MS AND NWRN AL. THE MDT RISK IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW BTR 45 ESE LFK 10 SSW TYR 35 NNE PRX 25 ESE FSM 60 SE HRO 35 E JBR 45 NE MKL 35 NE MSL 35 WNW BHM 40 ESE MEI 30 WSW LUL 35 NNW BTR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PSX 25 NW VCT 20 N SAT 60 SSE BWD 25 SE MWL 35 SW ADM 20 NNW OKC 25 ENE PNC 10 WNW JLN 20 SSW TBN 25 WSW MDH 20 SW EVV 25 S SDF 40 W LOZ 15 WSW CSV 15 SSE CHA 20 NW ATL 20 NE MCN 30 ENE ABY 30 ENE CEW 45 SSE MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CRP 35 W NIR 30 W HDO 15 SW JCT 40 SW BWD 45 ENE ABI 15 W SPS 10 WSW CSM 35 WSW GAG 20 NNW LBL 35 NW GCK 35 SSW HLC 15 SE CNK 40 E STJ 30 NW SPI 20 W LAF 25 NNW DAY 30 SE CMH 20 N CRW 20 ESE TRI 35 SW GSO 65 SW RIC 25 ENE ORF ...CONT... 25 N MLB 15 SSE PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E BNO 50 NW ALW 25 ESE 4OM 60 NE 63S 40 NNE FCA 15 NNW GTF 25 ESE LWT 30 N MLS 65 NNW REJ 20 ESE CDR 40 SE CYS 40 SW CAG 35 ENE DPG 55 ESE OWY 50 E BNO. ...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORNADOES EXPECTED SUNDAY... ...LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST... EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TO LIFT NWD. VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RETURN TO ERN TX/LA/AR EARLY IN PERIOD...THEN SPREAD NEWD AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY/NRN GULF COAST STATES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS ELEVATED MCS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE ONGOING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS AT 12Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINTAINED BY STRONG LLJ WHICH SHOULD VEER SOME WITH TIME AND SHIFT EWD TOWARD THE TN VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF RETREATING BOUNDARY EARLY IN PERIOD WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION...SBCAPE AOA 3000 J/KG...ACROSS NERN TX INTO LA/SRN AR BY 18Z. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL INHIBITION...NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. PARAMETERS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL. MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF SUPERCELLS AND EMBEDDED BOWS/LINE SEGMENTS WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE AS OVERALL COMPLEX OF SEVERE STORMS SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO MS/TN/NWRN AL LATER IN PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 04/05/03