STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS. VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW LBL 40 E LAA 30 ESE AKO 35 NNE CYS 45 E DGW 15 NNE CDR 30 W VTN 45 E ANW 20 S SUX 40 W DSM 20 NNW IRK 50 SSW UIN 45 W MDH 20 NNW DYR 15 NW MEM 30 NE PBF 40 WSW HOT DUA 10 NNE SPS 40 WSW CDS 30 SW LBL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE GLS 10 NNW AUS 35 ENE SJT 30 ENE BGS 10 SSE PVW 35 NE DHT LAA 20 E LIC 35 E DEN 20 WNW DEN 10 E ASE 40 W MTJ 35 ENE PGA 55 NE IGM 30 W EED 45 NW SAN ...CONT... 10 S EKA 35 NW MFR 50 ESE SLE 35 SE YKM 30 SE GEG 75 NW FCA ...CONT... 40 NE CTB 50 NW LWT 40 ENE BIL 55 WNW 4BQ 60 NE 4BQ 10 NW DIK 35 NW P24 70 NW MOT ...CONT... 25 ENE INL 20 SW DLH 40 S STC 20 W MCW 40 W CID 30 S SPI 35 WNW HOP 50 SE BNA 60 S TYS 10 SW AVL 10 NW TRI 10 S LEX 35 ESE LUK 25 E PKB 25 E EKN 30 ESE LYH 45 E RWI 10 NNW HSE. ...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS... SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER NERN CO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER CA MOVES INTO THE WRN STATES/ROCKIES. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN STRONG WSWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRACK FROM SRN CA TO THE SRN PLAINS WITH 50-60 KT 500 MB WINDS NOSING INTO THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS BY 04/00Z. AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS PROGGED OVER THE SRN INTO CENTRAL PLAINS AS MID-LEVELS /800-500 MB/ WARM. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN NWD DURING THE DAY ON SSELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS. MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEGREE/EXTENT OF RETURN FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 12Z ETA EXTENDS THE WARM SECTOR NWD INTO KS WHILE THE 02/00Z ETAKF AND 12Z GFS KEEP THE WARM FRONT FURTHER SOUTH FROM SWRN KS INTO CENTRAL/SRN OK TO NERN TX/NRN LA. CURRENT THINKING INDICATES A DRY LINE WILL MIX EWD DURING THE DAY REACHING WRN KS SWD TO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/FAR WRN OK TO WEST CENTRAL TX TO THE RIO GRANDE BY LATE AFTERNOON. IF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY LINE CAN BREAK THE FORECAST CAP FROM SWRN KS SWD AS IS PROGGED BY THE 12Z ETA...THEN TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY FROM NRN OK INTO CENTRAL KS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ATTM WITH TIMING/PLACEMENT OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL NOT ISSUE A MODERATE RISK. IF CONFIDENCE BECOMES GREATER WITH LATER MODEL RUNS... PORTIONS OF THE SRN INTO CENTRAL PLAINS MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE. OTHERWISE...MODELS APPEAR TO AGREE ON ELEVATED CONVECTION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD FROM NEB SEWD THROUGH ERN KS/MO TO AR AS A STRENGTHENING/VEERING LLJ FROM TX TO ERN KS WILL ENHANCE WAA NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...BENEATH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ...LOWER MS VALLEY... ISOLATED DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE RETURNING WARM FRONT FROM SRN AR/LA INTO MS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF WELL DEFINED UPPER FORCING WITHIN SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE MS VALLEY SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. ..PETERS.. 05/02/03