STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS. VALID 081630Z - 091200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN KS...SERN NEB...AND EXTREME NWRN MO TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E EMP SLN 25 WNW CNK 35 ESE HSI LNK 40 NE FNB 20 ENE MKC 35 E EMP. SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN IA...NWRN MO...CENTRAL/ERN KS...AND SERN NEB TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W HUT 15 ESE RSL 35 N RSL 30 SW EAR 20 NW GRI 25 SSW SUX 45 SW FOD DSM SZL 10 NNW BVO 25 NNE END 30 SSW HUT 20 W HUT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ECG DAN AVL HSV 20 N UOX LIT 45 SE PGO PRX 10 N ACT 40 WNW AUS 25 NNE JCT 35 ENE SJT 35 NNE FSI 40 SSW END 20 NNW P28 20 S HLC 40 SSW IML 40 NW IML 25 NNW BUB OTG 30 ENE MKT 30 SSE EAU 30 ENE VOK 35 N MKE AZO 20 SSW FDY 35 SE DAY HTS BKW 25 SSW EKN MRB 35 S CXY 20 S ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE CHS TUP 40 SSW HOT 45 ESE DAL 10 WNW LRD ...CONT... 10 NW DRT 35 NNE FSI 25 NW P28 35 SSW HLC GLD 10 ESE COS 20 NNE DRO 50 NNW NID 50 NW SFO ...CONT... 10 SW OTH 25 W RDM 40 SE BKE 15 WSW 4BQ 50 NNE MOT ...CONT... 60 NNW GFK 40 WNW BRD 20 NNE RHI DTW ...CONT... 20 ENE ERI 15 S JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 W CAR 35 SSW HUL 20 S BGR 15 SE CON 35 W GFL 20 ESE MSS. ...TORNADO OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN KS... SERN NEB AND NWRN MO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND 80 KT MID LEVEL JET MAX WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD FROM NM INTO KS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND EJECT NEWD FROM ERN CO INTO N CENTRAL KS BY LATE AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT FROM CENTRAL KS EWD INTO EXTREME SRN MO IS MOVING NWD AND EXTEND EWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER EWD INTO SRN IL...WHILE THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS/OK/TX. ...CENTRAL PLAINS EWD INTO THE MID MS / LOWER OH VALLEY... DRIER MID LEVEL AIR/CLEARING IS SPREADING NEWD ACROSS NWRN OK/WRN KS AND WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE MODERATE AND HIGH RISK AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3500 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR. STRONGEST FORCING WILL SPREAD INTO KS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CAPPING INVERSION TO BE LIFTED...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND ALONG/SOUTH OF WARM FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 70 KT. STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS. THE STRENGTH OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR INDICATES THAT VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS. ALSO...STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN BACKED BOUNDARY WINDS... SUGGESTING TORNADOES ARE ALSO LIKELY. SOME MAY BE QUITE STRONG GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT NEWD OVERNIGHT ACROSS AN INCREASINGLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...S CENTRAL KS SWD INTO TX... 12Z OUN SOUNDING SHOWED THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO EAST OF THE DRYLINE WAS FAIRLY DEEP...UP TO 800 MB. DESPITE THE WARMING THAT WILL OCCUR ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MLCAPES NEAR 4000 J/KG. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP EAST OF THE DRYLINE AROUND 21Z AS SRN TAIL OF KS SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRUSHES THE AREA. THE STRONG INSTABILITY PLUS 50 TO 70 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES THAN ACROSS THE MODERATE/HIGH RISK AREAS...STORMS THAT DEVIATE FROM THE MEAN FLOW WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...TN AND OH VALLEYS... COMPLEX OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD THROUGH NERN AR AND SHOULD MOVE MORE ENEWD AS IT ENCOUNTERS DEEPER SWLY FLOW ALOFT. MLCAPES WILL BE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE 40-50 KT WITH A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND A FEW TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. ...VA AREA... WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS NRN VA THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY. STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AS LIFTING IS AIDED BY A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING IN FROM WV. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH MID LEVEL ROTATION...WITH SEVERE HAIL AND SOME WIND DAMAGE LIKELY. ..IMY.. 05/08/03