STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS. VALID 082000Z - 091200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN KS...FAR SERN NEB AND NORTH CENTRAL OK...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SLN 25 SW CNK 40 WNW CNK 20 SSE HSI 35 E HSI LNK 35 SSE OMA 35 ENE FNB 15 ENE MKC 30 NNW JLN 30 E TUL 40 NNW MLC 35 WNW MLC 50 NNE ADM 45 SE OKC 35 SE OKC 20 ESE OKC 35 NNE OKC 10 SSW ICT SLN. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HUT 15 ESE RSL 35 N RSL 30 SW MCK 25 ESE IML 30 S BBW 25 NNW GRI 35 S SUX 45 WNW DSM 25 NE LWD 35 NNE SZL 15 SW SGF 10 W FSM 30 NE DUA 20 W DUA 25 SW ADM 45 WSW ADM 40 SE FSI 20 NNE END 20 W ICT HUT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE ECG 20 NNW DAN HSS HSV 20 N UOX LIT 45 SE PGO PRX 10 N ACT 40 NW AUS 50 NNW SAT 10 S JCT 25 NW JCT 35 ENE SJT 35 NNE FSI 40 SSW END 20 NNW P28 20 S HLC 45 SE AKO 20 ENE AKO 30 ESE SNY 45 NNW IML 25 NNW BUB OTG 30 ENE MKT 30 SSE EAU 30 S CWA 35 N MKE AZO 20 SSW FDY 35 SE DAY UNI 15 NNE PKB 25 WNW MGW 35 SW AOO 35 S CXY 20 S ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW DRT 35 NNE FSI 25 NW P28 35 SSW HLC GLD 10 ESE COS 20 NNE DRO 50 NNW NID 50 NW SFO ...CONT... 10 SW OTH 25 W RDM 40 SE BKE 15 WSW 4BQ 50 NNE MOT ...CONT... 60 NNW GFK 40 WNW BRD 20 NNE RHI DTW ...CONT... 20 ENE ERI 15 S JFK ...CONT... 15 SE CHS TUP 40 SSW HOT 45 ESE DAL 10 WNW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 W CAR 35 SSW HUL 20 S BGR 15 SE CON 35 W GFL 20 ESE MSS. ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NRN KS WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING S FROM COLBY KS TO CHILDRESS TX. SFC THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDED NWD FROM NW OK INTO CNTRL KS WITH CELLS INCREASING ACROSS NWRN-CNTRL KS BEHIND CLEARING LINE. TOWERING CU IS ALSO DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS WCNTRL OK. THESE TWO AREAS APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY PLACES FOR INTENSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH AREAS FARTHER S POSSIBLY HOLDING OFF LONGER...SEE MCD 850/851/852. STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING...IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 60 TO 70 KT AND STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH HEIGHT WILL FAVOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. AS THE SUPERCELLS MOVE N AND EWD INTO THE MOIST AXIS...TORNADOES/LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR LONG-TRACK STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN KS WERE CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWER WITH LCL HEIGHTS OF 600 TO 800 METERS. THIS AREA HAS CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND WAS E OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL VORT MAX. SFC WINDS ARE ALSO BACKED E AND N OF THE SFC LOW WHICH HAVE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL HELICITIES TO OVER 300 M2/S2. SUPERCELLS FURTHER S ALONG THE DRYLINE IN OK WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. IF THE CAP CAN BREAK INTO CENTRAL TX...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIR AND 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 50 KT. ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS NEWD AFTER MIDNIGHT... STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL KEEP SUPERCELLS/BOW ECHOES GOING WITH A BROKEN LINE MOVING ACROSS ERN NE/ERN KS/ERN OK. TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LINEAR ACROSS IA/MO WITH A TRANSITION TO SQUALL-LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES. WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT LATE IN THE PERIOD. ...UPPER MS VALLEY/OH AND TN VALLEYS... ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS MO/NRN TN/SRN KY. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG IS DEVELOPING ALONG AND S OF THE WARM FRONT. AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ...MID ATLANTIC... ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS NRN VA INTO THE CENTRAL/SERN VA COAST INTO THE EVENING. AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..BROYLES.. 05/08/03