AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 219 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2003 ...POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OF OKLAHOMA DURING THE NEXT 3-9 HOURS... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SFC LOW CONT TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVER WRN KS/ERN CO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.. AND THERE IS SUBTLE EVIDENCE OF A SECONDARY IMPULSE PUSHING EWD ACROSS NEW MEXICO. 18Z OUN SOUNDING INDICATES THAT CAPPING IS MUCH WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ALONG DRYLINE ACROSS MOST OF OKLAHOMA. POTENT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS EVIDENT WITH VERY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT.. LOW LCL HGHTS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN ADDITION..THE HODOGRAPH SHOWS SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE.. HILITED BY A DISTINCT KINK IN THE HODOGRAPH AT ABOUT 1.5 KM AGL. THIS TYPE OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE IN COMBINATION WITH ABOVE MENTIONED THERMODYNAMICS HAS OFTEN BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH ENVIRONMENTS SUPPORTIVE OF LONG LIVED STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES. EXPECT INITIATION INVOF THE DRYLINE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. SVR THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NITE AS STRONG UVVS CONT ALONG DRYLINE UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. LIKELY TO SEE DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO TEXAS LATER THIS AFT/EVE. INSTABILITY AXIS WILL RELOAD FRIDAY OVER THE SE ZONES.. AND THEN EXPAND NWWD INTO REDEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL ZONE FRIDAY NITE. HAVE READJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THINKING. NEXT WAVE WILL EJECT ONTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY.. BUT MAIN FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY WITH THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE NORTHEAST OF THE OUN CWA ATTM. HOWEVER..STILL LIKELY TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW STORMS ALONG/SE OF I44 CORRIDOR AHEAD OF DRYLINE/FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL FINALLY BUILD SWD FAR ENUF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF RESPITE FROM STORMS..BUT TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WILL BE LURKING CLOSE BY AND SHUD MOVE BACK NWD MONDAY/TUES AS LONG WAVE TROF RELOADS OVER THE WRN CONUS. WE WILL BRING SLGT CHC POPS BACK INTO THE SW ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONSET OF MOISTURE RETURN.. AND THEN EXPAND/INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THRU MID WEEK. MORE BOUTS OF SVR STORMS SEEM LIKELY AS SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS SUPERIMPOSED UNDERNEATH STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW. MILLER