STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS. VALID 091630Z - 101200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF OK...SOUTHEAST KS...NORTHWEST AR...AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MO. TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW IRK ALN UNO FSM 35 WSW ADM LTS 50 ENE GAG ICT MKC 40 SSW IRK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE HSE GSO LOZ BWG JBR DUA BWD SJT 50 WNW ABI CDS 45 S RSL BIE CID JVL FNT 20 NE MTC ...CONT... ERI LBE 25 SSE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N OLF 45 WSW DIK 20 SW Y22 30 NNE PIR 10 NNW BUB 15 SE GRI 15 NNE LNK 35 W DSM 40 WNW DBQ 25 W LSE 25 NNW MSP 40 E BRD 45 NE DLH ...CONT... ART 45 ENE UCA 30 N BDR 15 E ISP ...CONT... 35 SW CHS 20 E AHN 20 NNW RMG LIT 20 NW TXK 25 NNW ACT 55 W COT 15 SE P07 45 S MAF 45 NNW BGS 25 S AMA 35 SSE EHA 30 N EHA 35 S LAA 20 NE TAD 10 ESE ALS 15 NNE DRO 35 WSW 4BL 15 NNW PGA P38 55 ESE TPH BIH 45 ENE SCK 40 ESE ACV 50 NNW MFR 45 ENE EUG 40 ENE PDX 25 S SEA 35 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE DAB PBI 25 SSW MIA 70 WSW MIA 25 ENE SRQ 45 WNW ORL 25 SSE DAB. BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN STATES TODAY...WITH BAND OF STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM NM INTO THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ...WV/VA/NC... MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES FROM SOUTHERN WV INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VA. THIS AREA SHOULD DESTABILIZE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISE WELL INTO THE 60S. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS OVER WESTERN WV...AS WELL AS ISOLATED STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL VA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SBCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG AND STRONG WESTERLY LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN ANY STORMS THAT CAN BECOME SUSTAINED. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AND MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE 00Z. ...OH/IND/KY... VERY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN IND/OH AND MOST OF KY. THIS AREA SHOULD SEE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING FOR SBCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG. THIS AREA WILL EXPERIENCE SHORTWAVE RIDGING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK CAP AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON/ EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. 50-60 KNOT WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS AND STRONG INSTABILITY INDICATE THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IN THOSE STORMS THAT DEVELOP. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY... ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHWEST TX. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH WELL-DEFINED 700MB TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO OK/MO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BACK AND INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY EVENING...RESULTING IN FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELL STORMS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTENSIFY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER SOUTHWESTERN OK AND NORTHWEST TX. THESE STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE/SUPERCELLS WITH THE THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OK/SOUTHESAT KS/WESTERN AND CENTRAL MO BY EARLY EVENING...WHERE OTHER SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED. ACTIVITY MAY ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS BY LATE EVENING OVER EASTERN OK...WITH AN ENHANCED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MO AND NORTHERN AR. ISOLATED CELLS MAY ALSO DEVELOP NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST KS OR SOUTHERN IA OVERNIGHT WITH THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. ..HART.. 05/09/03