DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0248 AM CST WED MAR 03 2004 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE HDO 15 NW SEP 25 NNE ADM 45 NW CGI 20 NNE DYR 35 WNW MLU 50 WNW HOU 20 ESE HDO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW DRT 45 NNW SJT 45 W PVW 35 NNE AMA 20 WSW PNC 35 WSW OTM 25 WSW JVL 30 S MKG 30 S JXN 25 NNW LUK 20 SSW BWG 25 NE ESF 45 SSW HOU 40 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW TUS 20 S PRC PGA 25 SE ASE 15 N TAD 10 NNE LBL 10 NW HUT 35 NNW ALO 15 NW MBL 85 E OSC ...CONT... 20 N BUF 15 SSW FKL 15 NNW LOZ 35 NE CBM 10 NW MCB 20 WSW 7R4 ...CONT... 15 E CRP 15 SSE LRD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND E TX...AR...SE OK...SRN MO AND NRN LA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WRN AND SRN TX NEWD INTO A LARGE PART OF THE MID MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP CLOSED LOW NOW OVER NRN BAJA EXPECTED TO TURN E ACROSS NRN MEXICO TODAY AND REACH NRN CHIHUAHUA BY 12Z THURSDAY. FROM THERE THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE NEWD AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN PLNS AND MID MS VLY...REACHING WI/IL BY 12Z FRIDAY. EJECTION OF UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS EARLY THURSDAY ALONG STRENGTHENING FRONTAL ZONE NOW SETTING UP OVER NW TX. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE NE ALONG THE FRONT...AND REACH NRN IL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM'S TRAILING COLD FRONT...EXISTING INVERTED TROUGH/DRY LINE STRUCTURE OVER S CNTRL TX EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE E/NE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE STATE...POSSIBLY TO AS FAR E AS THE ARKLATEX AREA BY EVENING. ...TX/OK/AR/NRN LA TO THE MID MS VLY... A FAIRLY BROAD SWATH EXTENDING FROM CNTRL AND ERN TX NE INTO PARTS OF THE LWR AND MID MS VLYS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE SOME FORM OF SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY. THIS ACTIVITY COULD INCLUDE A FEW STRONG AND/OR LONG LIVED TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO HIGH WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SEVERAL BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD INVOF WARM FRONT AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER NRN AND CNTRL TX. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY EXTEND N IN ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION ZONE INTO THE CNTRL PLNS. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY NEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF EJECTING UPPER TROUGH. LINEAR FORCING AND BACKED FLOW AHEAD OF AMPLIFIED UPPER IMPULSE WILL LIKELY FAVOR A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BUT COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING AND CONVERGENCE IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF INVERTED TROUGH/DRY LINE...AND 60-70 KT DEEP SWLY SHEAR SUGGEST THAT POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR A FEW DISCRETE STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF E CNTRL AND NE TX WHERE THE GREATEST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG/ SHOULD DEVELOP. GIVEN EXPECTED BREADTH OF WARM SECTOR AND EXPECTED STORM MOTION...THIS SETUP COULD SUPPORT SEVERAL LONG-LASTING STORMS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES NEWD INTO AR. THE STORMS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS AND BOWS OVER THE OZARKS AND MID MS VLY THURSDAY EVENING/EARLY FRIDAY AS STRONG LINEAR FORCING OF SHORTWAVE ACCELERATES NEWD. GIVEN QUALITY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW /850 MB DEWPOINTS AOA 12C/..CONTINUED DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW IN RESPONSE TO STRONG DPVA...AND 100+ KT MID LEVEL JET MAX ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT DESPITE INCREASINGLY WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. FARTHER W...OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING INVOF DEVELOPING SECONDARY COLD FRONT BENEATH VORT AXIS/ COLD POOL ALOFT OVER PARTS OF NW TX AND WRN OK. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS SHOULD BE HAIL. ..CORFIDI.. 03/03/2004