DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 AM CDT THU APR 29 2004 VALID 291630Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S JLN 10 SSW TUL OKC 45 SE SPS 55 WNW MWL 65 NNW ABI 30 WNW CDS 30 ENE AMA 55 SSW LBL 10 WNW LBL 10 SE RSL 20 NW FNB 25 ENE MKC 35 S JLN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLH 30 NNW MCB 25 WNW BTR 25 ESE POE 20 ENE SHV 30 E ELD GLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE P07 70 ENE P07 20 WNW SJT 45 NE BGS 50 E LBB 30 NE PVW 30 W AMA 10 NE TCC 55 WSW TCC 4CR 35 NW TCS 50 NW SAD 25 NNW PHX 45 WSW PRC 45 SSW SGU 25 ESE ELY 35 W DPG 30 SSW EVW 20 E RKS 35 SE RWL 30 WSW CYS 30 ESE FCL 40 WSW GLD 25 SE GLD 30 W LNK 20 SW LSE 30 SW ESC ...CONT... 10 NNW CLE 10 E CMH 25 NNW JKL 40 NNE TYS 60 NW AND 50 ENE MCN 30 N AYS 10 ESE JAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PART OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... COLD FRONT HAS SURGED SWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE THEN EXTENDS NEWD THROUGH SWRN/CNTRL KS AND INTO EXTREME SE NEB. DRYLINE SHOULD SETUP FROM ERN PARTS OF W TX NWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE OR WRN OK WHERE IT WILL INTERSECT THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IS RETURNING NWD THROUGH TX AND OK...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NWD THROUGH KS. DESTABILIZATION IN THE KS PORTION OF WARM SECTOR WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS CAN MIX OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CLEARING IS ALREADY OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF WRN OK...THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND SWRN KS...AND THIS AREA SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...MIXING AND CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY NEAR TRIPLE POINT WHERE THE DRYLINE INTERSECTS THE FRONT OVER THE EXTREME ERN TX PANHANDLE OR WRN OK SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD NEWD THROUGH WRN OK. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. FARTHER NWD INTO KS...CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED BY THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRESENCE OF THE CAP. IF LOW CLOUDS CAN MIX OUT...STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES SWD INTO KS. OTHERWISE...STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT ACROSS KS IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT. ...LOWER MS VALLEY... STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF VORT MAX MOVING ENEWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. REFER TO MCD 493 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. ..DIAL.. 04/29/2004