DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 PM CDT THU APR 08 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW CLL 35 NNE SAT 55 ESE JCT 50 NE JCT 15 NNE BWD 45 WNW MWL 55 W SPS 30 NNE CDS 55 NNE AMA 35 SSW LBL 20 SE LBL 40 NNE GAG 10 ESE END 35 SW MKO 20 W PGO 15 NW TXK 20 NW SHV 20 NE LFK 50 SW LFK 30 SSW CLL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW SRQ MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE CRP 15 WNW LRD ...CONT... 45 NW DRT 30 S SJT 45 WSW ABI 60 ESE LBB 20 WSW LBB 25 ENE ROW 35 W ALM 55 SSE PHX 40 NW GBN 40 NE BLH 25 ENE EED 20 ENE IGM 35 SSW GCN 20 ENE INW 45 WSW GUP 45 SW FMN 20 NNW CEZ 10 ENE U28 30 N PUC 35 SE EVW 15 NW RKS 25 WSW RWL 20 SSE RWL 30 WNW LIC 10 NNE DDC 35 WSW CNU 40 SSW TBN 20 NNW DYR 30 SSE MKL 25 NE TUP 25 W CBM 20 NNW JAN 25 WSW HEZ 35 S ESF 40 SSE LCH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF N TX...E TX AND SRN OK... ...SRN OK/N TX/E TX... SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A BROAD REGION OF WEAK NLY FLOW ACROSS OK AND N TX. A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT EXISTS ACROSS SRN OK AND THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE RED RIVER INTO N TX TONIGHT. A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN NM INTO WCNTRL TX BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT...THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS W TX AND THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT EWD INTO NCNTRL TX. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS SCNTRL KS...WRN OK AND NCNTRL TX AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE MORNING...HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS NCNTRL TX WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL BE MODERATELY STEEP DUE TO WARMER SFC TEMPS. ANY MORNING CONVECTION MAY IMPEDE SFC HEATING SOMEWHAT AS IT SPREADS EWD INTO NE TX...ERN OK BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FURTHER WEST ACROSS SW OK AND THE LOW-ROLLING PLAINS...A DRYLINE SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF A SFC LOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SFC HEATING WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION EAST OF THE LOW...SHOULD YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE VALUES 1500-2000 J/KG) BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION INITIATION MOST LIKELY IN THE 21Z TO 00Z TIMEFRAME. INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ASSOCIATED WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND ALONG THE FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED FROM NCNTRL TX EXTENDING NWD ACROSS WRN OK INTO THE NE TX PANHANDLE NORTH OF THE SFC LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR NCNTRL TX/SW OK FOR 21-00Z SHOW FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER THE CONVECTION MATURES. THE SUPERCELL THREAT WILL EXIST FROM THE FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER NORTH OF DALLAS SWD ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SCATTERED ORGANIZED STORMS SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY EWD INTO SERN OK AND NE TX DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE ENHANCED NEAR THE RED RIVER ALONG THE FRONT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES IN THE 22Z TO 02Z TIMEFRAME. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR ROTATING STORMS OR BOWED SEGMENTS DURING THE EVENING. AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK MAY BE NECESSARY IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF IT APPEARS THE ABOVE SCENARIO BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO AR AND LA BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT SHOULD EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY. REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEST NEAR THE MOIST AXIS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE WX THREAT SHOULD EXIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. ..BROYLES.. 04/08/2004