DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0804 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2005 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CRP 15 NE COT 45 E DRT 30 S SEP 45 ENE SPS 40 NW OKC 40 SSW P28 25 SW RSL 20 NNW HLC 25 N OFK 30 ENE YKN 35 NE BKX 40 SSW AXN 20 WSW STC 30 SSW MSP 15 ESE ALO 30 NW UIN 10 NW ARG 30 E MLU 25 SW 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE BLI 35 W YKM 55 SW RDM 30 N MFR 45 SSW OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BRO 15 ENE LRD 15 NE DRT BWD 25 ENE SPS 45 ENE CSM 40 N CSM 45 NNW CDS 50 S LBB 15 SSW INK 10 SE ELP 25 N DUG 35 NE PHX 30 SSW GCN 30 NNE INW 25 NNW GNT 30 ESE TAD 50 NW GLD 35 SSE PHP 40 SE MBG 15 NNE JMS 70 NNE DVL ...CONT... 25 NNE ELO 45 S ESC 20 SE JXN 10 NNW CMH 10 NW HTS 25 NW JKL 20 E OWB 10 SSW PAH 20 SSE DYR 30 SSE UOX 20 NNW LUL 20 S BVE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AND EWD TO SWRN MN TO MO TO TX COAST AND WRN LA... ...SYNOPSIS... CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SERN CO WILL MOVE SLOWLY ENEWD INTO WRN KS TONIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SWRN KS...TRACKING INTO CENTRAL KS BY 12Z MONDAY. DRY LINE CURRENTLY TRAILING SSEWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO CENTRAL TX WILL MOVE EWD OVERNIGHT TOWARD SERN KS/ERN OK TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A SECOND LOW OVER FAR NWRN IA AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH/SLY MID LEVEL JET WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NWD ACROSS WRN MN AND THE FAR ERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS EWD TO MO/AR/LA/COASTAL TX... STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS KS/OK OVERNIGHT ATOP MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THESE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS COMBINED WITH ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING NEWD ACROSS OK INTO KS AND A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPREADING INTO TX/OK OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW/DRY LINE. AS 80+ KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE THROUGH THE SRN TO ERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS WITH DISCRETE STORMS EVOLVING INTO A SQUALL LINE. VERY LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A THREAT OVER ERN PORTIONS OF KS/OK AND NERN TX WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES A POTENTIAL AS WELL. ...ERN NEB/IA NWD TO WRN MN... ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TRACK NWD ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS INTO SRN/WRN MN. HOWEVER...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES FARTHER NWD ACROSS WRN MN AS INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. ..PETERS.. 04/11/2005